Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance 34%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ron DeSantis 14%
政治选举 24h 成交 $3.8M 截止 2028-11-08
Polymarket 热门市场
按 24 小时成交额排序的 Polymarket 热门事件。百分比 = “是”的价格 = 市场认为该事件发生的概率。
在 Polymarket 官网查看全部市场 卡片上的市场标题是官网原文，可直接在官网搜索。
数据更新于 2026-11-05 08:15 UTC，实时价格以 Polymarket 官网为准。
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Jon Ossoff 28%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%
Gavin Newsom 14%
政治选举 24h 成交 $2.7M 截止 2028-11-08
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Jon Ossoff 22%
JD Vance 17%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13%
政治选举 24h 成交 $2.2M 截止 2028-11-08
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola (D) 95%
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 6%
Ann Diener <1%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.8M 截止 2026-11-04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
是 2%
否 98%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.5M 截止 2027-01-01
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Scott Colom (D) 97%
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 3%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.4M 截止 2026-11-04
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31 >99%
November 2 >99%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.2M 截止 2027-01-01
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Barcelona 24%
Paris Saint-Germain 19%
Arsenal 14%
体育 24h 成交 $1.2M 截止 2027-06-20
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot 57%
Benjamin Netanyahu 28%
Avigdor Lieberman 4%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.1M 截止 2026-10-28
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
None 95%
AK 5%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.1M 截止 2026-11-03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 2 >99%
November 4 >99%
November 3 >99%
政治选举 24h 成交 $1.0M 截止 2026-12-31
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 78%
No change 23%
50+ bps increase <1%
政治选举 24h 成交 $977K 截止 2026-12-10
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen 43%
David Lisnard 16%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
政治选举 24h 成交 $810K 截止 2027-04-19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
是 13%
否 88%
政治选举 24h 成交 $689K 截止 2027-01-01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↑ 90,000 41%
↓ 70,000 34%
↑ 95,000 23%
加密货币 24h 成交 $607K 截止 2027-01-01
Worlds 2026: Winner
Gen.G 52%
T1 20%
Bilibili Gaming 14%
体育 24h 成交 $599K 截止 2026-11-29
Bitcoin above ___ on November 5?
72,000 >99%
74,000 >99%
76,000 >99%
加密货币 24h 成交 $564K 截止 2026-11-05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31 71%
December 31 44%
November 30 23%
政治选举 24h 成交 $558K 截止 2027-01-01
Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?
300-319 38%
280-299 36%
320-339 14%
政治选举 24h 成交 $552K 截止 2026-11-06
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 21.5 >99%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 22.5 >99%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic Match O/U 23.5 >99%
体育 24h 成交 $515K 截止 2026-11-12
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
↑ 82,500 79%
↓ 77,500 70%
↑ 85,000 56%
加密货币 24h 成交 $514K 截止 2026-12-01
Dota 2: CyberHero vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Both Teams Beat Roshan 50%
Any Player Ultra Kill 50%
Any Player Rampage 50%
体育 24h 成交 $514K 截止 2026-11-04
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 5 97%
November 6 93%
November 8 82%
政治选举 24h 成交 $434K 截止 2027-01-01
What price will Bitcoin hit November 2-8?
↑ 82,000 59%
↓ 78,000 35%
↑ 84,000 23%
加密货币 24h 成交 $409K 截止 2026-11-09
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an 73%
Puma Shen 27%
Kuo Hsi <1%
政治选举 24h 成交 $352K 截止 2026-11-29
Trump out as President before 2027?
是 4%
否 96%
政治选举 24h 成交 $340K 截止 2027-01-01
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
44 94%
45 6%
46 <1%
政治选举 24h 成交 $337K 截止 2026-11-03
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Elena Pridankina vs Alexandra Shubladze
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Elena Pridankina vs Alexandra Shubladze Total Sets: O/U 2.5 >99%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Elena Pridankina vs Alexandra Shubladze Match O/U 21.5 >99%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Elena Pridankina vs Alexandra Shubladze Match O/U 22.5 >99%
体育 24h 成交 $336K 截止 2026-11-12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
是 53%
否 48%
政治选举 24h 成交 $307K 截止 2027-01-01
NBA: 2027 Champion
San Antonio Spurs 23%
Oklahoma City Thunder 13%
Philadelphia 76ers 12%
体育 24h 成交 $292K 截止 2027-07-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
是 <1%
否 >99%
政治选举 24h 成交 $278K 截止 2026-11-04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
是 11%
否 90%
政治选举 24h 成交 $277K 截止 2027-01-01
Ethereum above ___ on November 5?
1,900 >99%
2,000 >99%
2,100 >99%
加密货币 24h 成交 $275K 截止 2026-11-05
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
↓ $85 81%
↓ $80 55%
↑ $95 53%
财经 24h 成交 $274K 截止 2026-12-01
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club
Draw (Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club) 99%
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 1%
Al Fayha Saudi Club 1%
体育 24h 成交 $274K 截止 2026-11-05
NC-03 House Election Winner
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 74%
Greg Murphy (R) 26%
政治选举 24h 成交 $261K 截止 2026-11-04
What price will Ethereum hit November 2-8?
↓ 2,400 84%
↑ 2,500 49%
↓ 2,300 30%
加密货币 24h 成交 $220K 截止 2026-11-09
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027 27%
December 31 6%
政治选举 24h 成交 $214K 截止 2027-07-01
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
O/U 3.5 Games 76%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? 59%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? 59%
体育 24h 成交 $213K 截止 2026-11-06
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman >99%
Karen Bass <1%
政治选举 24h 成交 $210K 截止 2026-06-03
怎么看懂一个预测市场？
每个市场都是一个“是 / 否”问题，例如“某候选人会赢得选举吗？”。你可以买“是”或“否”的份额，价格在 0–1 美元之间。事件结束后，猜对的一方每份兑付 1 美元，猜错的一方归零。
所以价格本身就是概率：“是”卖 0.30 美元，意味着市场认为发生的可能性约 30%。如果你认为真实概率更高，买入“是”就有正期望。想算清楚收益，可以用我们的 赔率 / 收益计算器。
第一次接触？建议按顺序阅读：Polymarket 新手教程 → 充值教程 → 再回来挑一个你熟悉的话题小额试试。
从注册到第一笔下注的完整步骤见 Polymarket 怎么玩。
常见问题
Polymarket 上的百分比是什么意思？
百分比就是“是”份额的当前价格。比如显示 65%，表示买 1 份“是”要花约 0.65 美元，事件发生时这份兑付 1 美元。价格由买卖双方交易形成，可以理解为市场对事件发生概率的集体估计，并不保证结果。
这些数据多久更新一次？
页面在每次网站构建时从 Polymarket 公开接口获取数据，并在你打开页面时尝试再刷新一次。实时价格以 Polymarket 官网为准。
我可以直接在这里下注吗？
不可以。本站只做信息展示和教程，点击市场会跳转到 Polymarket 官网。下注前请先确认你所在地区可以使用 Polymarket，并阅读我们的新手教程。